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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2021-07-27T03:24:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2021-07-27T03:24Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/17401/-1
CME Note: The source is an eruption from AR 2849 (~S15E25) in AIA 193, AIA 304, and EUVI A 195 starting at 2021-07-27T01:51Z, with darkening and bright post-eruptive arcades. It is associated with the long duration B1.9 class flare peaking at 2021-07-27T02:13Z
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2021-07-30T07:36Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Prediction Method: EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)
Prediction Method Note:

Utilizing the upgraded version EAM_v3 [Paouris et al. 2021]

% Compiled module: EAM_V3.
******************************************************************************
Most pr. speed = 420.0 km/s 
The EAM version you are running is: v3
u_r =      273.660
Acceleration:       2.00051
Duration in seconds:        274364.57
Duration in days:        3.1755158
t2 is negative
**************************************************************************************
Acceleration of the CME:   2.00 m/s^2
Velocity of the CME at 1 AU:  822.5 km/s
Expected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 30/07/2021 Time: 07:36 UT

Lead Time: 48.60 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Evangelos Paouris (JHUAPL) on 2021-07-28T07:00Z

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